December 3rd, 2025
Key Takeaways
Markets continued a slow, structural deleveraging following the October flash crash
Forced sellers pushed BTC/ETH into unstable ranges despite ETF inflows
DAT companies shifted from buyers to partial sellers as mNAVs fell below 1
Macro data uncertainty kept liquidity tight, with retail largely sidelined
Regulatory pressure and SEC actions increased stress on leveraged participants
Systematic, rules-based risk management outperformed discretionary trading
Fund managers are maintaining a defensive posture while preserving dry powder for Q1
The edge right now is discipline, position-sizing, and trend-confirmation
Market Overview
November unfolded as a continuation of October’s shock rather than a reset. Price action in both BTC and ETH was defined not by new buyers, but by the steady unwind of balance sheets stressed during the flash crash. The market traded heavily, with rallies consistently fading as derivatives-driven leverage dissolved. Stablecoin flows were quiet. Retail participation remained almost nonexistent. Altcoin liquidity was thin enough at times that spreads widened dramatically—even on higher-volume venues.
Across global venues, signals pointed to a market digesting forced selling rather than expressing conviction. Volatility was erratic, trend signals were choppy, and market structure favored those who avoided emotional positioning. In practice, November rewarded risk reduction and punished prediction-based trading.
Regulatory Developments
Regulators spent much of November interpreting the causes and consequences of the flash crash. Several public comments hinted at tightening oversight of offshore derivatives venues and renewed interest in leverage disclosures. The conversation also expanded to corporate treasuries holding digital assets, where regulators are seeking clearer transparency standards—especially for companies running equity-financed accumulation strategies.
Clarifications around “programmable yield” products are expected early next year, and several agencies have signaled coordinated review of token issuance structures. The undertone this month was consistent: regulators want more transparency, less hidden leverage, and more predictable risk profiles. Funds built on rules and verifiable discipline—not retail psychology—stand to benefit.
SEC Actions
The SEC accelerated investigations into unregistered lending, undisclosed market-making relationships, and the accuracy of digital asset reserve reporting. A few mid-sized firms faced direct questioning about treasury management practices following stress in their crypto-linked balance sheets. These inquiries heightened caution among liquidity providers and pushed some market makers to reduce exposure.
Although none of these actions were existential for the market, the direction of travel was unmistakable: more scrutiny, more reporting, and less tolerance for opaque risk. This environment favors managers who can operate transparently with provable, rules-based frameworks—an area where CKC.Fund’s systematic model fits naturally.
Institutional Moves
Institutions spent November rotating from risk accumulation to risk management. Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies—massive buyers earlier in the year—shifted into defensive mode. Many saw their mNAV drop below 1, preventing further opportunistic equity raises. Several announced stock repurchase programs funded by liquidating portions of their BTC/ETH holdings, contributing to the persistent sell pressure.
Hedge funds trimmed directional exposure and leaned more heavily on capital-preservation strategies. ETF flows remained positive but slowed sharply, a sign of quiet but steady institutional participation rather than enthusiasm. Overall, the dominant institutional theme was caution—not capitulation, but certainly not expansion.
Macro & Global Liquidity
The macro landscape in November was clouded by the aftereffects of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which delayed critical data releases and distorted the usual read on economic momentum. When employment data finally arrived, it was neither strong nor weak enough to anchor expectations. As a result, the market continued to price a high probability of a December rate cut while the Fed itself maintained a cautious tone.
Concern over a potential BoJ rate hike intensified through the month, raising fears of another yen carry unwind similar to earlier episodes. Meanwhile, corporate defaults in the U.S. climbed modestly, credit spreads widened, and global M2 remained sluggish. Liquidity simply did not expand enough to meaningfully support risk assets. In an environment of contradictory signals and hesitant liquidity, systematic strategies are designed to reduce exposure until clarity emerges.
Looking Ahead
December opens with markets searching for conviction. BTC appears likely to stay in a broad range until macro data trends clean up. ETH’s relative strength is a positive sign, but it still requires sustained ETF inflows to lead a new leg. Midcaps remain vulnerable to further selling until stablecoin issuance returns meaningfully. Key catalysts lie ahead in CPI, JOLTS, BoJ movements, and the early-January liquidity reset.
The overarching reality is that this stage of the cycle rewards patience, risk discipline, and unemotional execution. CKC.Fund will continue to follow its signals—reducing exposure when volatility becomes unstable and redeploying capital only when trend, liquidity, and momentum all reconverge. This rules-based posture is designed for months like these: protecting capital through noise, preserving upside optionality, and positioning deliberately for the next decisive trend.
At CKC.Fund, we remain focused on long-biased, actively managed exposure across structurally advantaged altcoin ecosystems. Our approach benefits from early rotation signals, a thesis-driven portfolio, and high-conviction entries backed by macro, regulatory, and flow dynamics.
If you’re seeking exposure that moves beyond headlines and positions ahead of the curve, we’re here to talk.
– The CKC.Fund Team
For more information or inquiries, please reach out to us at info@ckc.fund
CKC.Fund – Offshore. Actively managed. Altcoin focused.
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