May 7th, 2025
Key Takeaways
🚀 Capital keeps rotating into crypto: ETFs vacuum 9 % of new Bitcoin, exchange balances hit five‑year lows, and stablecoin supply jumps—supply is tight while buy‑power grows.
🪙 Alt‑season watch is on: ETH/BTC stabilising at 0.05 has historically preceded 3‑7× moves in quality alts—window likely May‑June.
🛡️ June macro cluster = hedge time: CPI, Fed + BOJ meetings, and potential tariff restart all converge—pre‑position protection before volatility spikes.
📜 Regulation moves but stays patchy: EU’s MiCA is live; UAE, Japan, Switzerland roll out national stablecoins, yet U.S. state bills remain uneven—flexibility wins.
Market Overview
April was defined by capital rotation out of the U.S. dollar and into Europe and crypto.
Bitcoin gained nearly 13 % while the euro strengthened on the ECB’s surprise rate cut to 2.25 %.
Gold tagged a new high at $3,500, but profit‑takers rolled proceeds into European equities and digital assets.
Exchange BTC balances fell to a five‑year low just as spot‑Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly 9 % of newly mined coins—creating a chronic supply vacuum.
Ethereum’s ratio versus Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) based at 0.05—the same level that preceded previous alt‑season bursts.
Regulatory Developments
MiCA officially took effect in the European Union, giving exchanges and issuers a passportable rule‑set.
The United Arab Emirates, Japan, and Switzerland each advanced national stablecoin frameworks, signalling a multi‑currency stablecoin future.
State‑side, regulation remained uneven: Arizona’s Bitcoin‑reserve bill was vetoed, yet similar legislation in Florida and Texas continued to advance.
SEC Actions
The Securities and Exchange Commission quietly closed several legacy enforcement probes, a sign the agency may be pivoting to a more selective approach. No new high‑profile suits were filed during the month.
Institutional Moves
Kraken bought futures broker NinjaTrader for US$1.5 B, locking in a regulated U.S. futures rail.
Coinbase entered advanced talks to acquire options giant Deribit (valuation up to US$5 B).
Corporate treasuries added more than 8,000 BTC to balance‑sheets in April, led by Metaplanet and MicroStrategy.
A dedicated Solana vehicle raised US$500 M, signalling appetite for large‑cap alts at institutional scale.
Political Influence on Markets
Tariffs on non‑China imports remain paused until June, framing a likely sequence of “spook → slow‑down → refinance” for U.S. debt.
Tax‑cut rhetoric continues in Washington, but no concrete fiscal bills have passed. The Federal Reserve’s independence was questioned in headlines, yet remains legally untouched.
Macro and Global Liquidity
U.S.: Core inflation ticked up to 2.8 % even as Q1 GDP slipped –0.3 %.
Euro‑zone: ECB easing injected fresh euros, driving yield seekers toward crypto and European risk assets.
China: GDP rose 5.4 %, but deflation persisted; Beijing stimulus offset an 18‑year‑low yuan.
Stablecoin supply jumped 6 % month‑over‑month, providing instant on‑chain buying power.
Looking Ahead
June risk cluster: U.S. CPI release, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan rate decisions, and a potential restart of U.S. tariffs all land within days—volatility hedge remains essential.
Alt‑season watch: ETH/BTC’s 0.05 base has historically preceded 3‑7× moves in quality alts; CKC.Fund has begun measured accumulation.
Structural tailwind: ETFs, regulated futures, and sovereign stablecoins are tightening Bitcoin supply and expanding institutional rails.
Strategy: We remain long core BTC, selectively long alts, and hedged for June. Dry powder in stablecoins lets us buy any tariff‑induced dips.
Inaction is the greatest cost; calibrated exposure now outweighs waiting for a “perfect” entry that never arrives.
Stay in Touch
Navigating the ever-changing landscape of digital assets can be a challenge. That's why we’ve created this newsletter to help bring clarity to the complexity. In addition to a monthly summary of the most important crypto news, we layer in insightful commentary from insiders and experts who understand the cryptocurrency market.
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– The CKC.Fund Team
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