July 7th, 2025
Key Takeaways
Liquidity remains abundant even as the yield-curve steepens; that’s a likely intensifying tail-wind for high-beta alts.
BTC option pricing has collapsed below S&P vol – CKC is already harvesting that mismatch.
Regulatory fog is lifting (GENIUS, CLARITY, SEC rollback): the stable-coin & RWA rails we trade on are turning institutional-grade.
Upcoming catalysts (SOL ETF 7/15, Crypto Week 7/14-18) could reprice the market in hours; active positioning is critical.
Market Overview
Rates & Liquidity: 10-yr sits at 4.25 %, Sept-cut odds ≈ 70 %. 600 B$ still parked in the Fed’s RRP— plenty of dry powder.
Vol & Flows: BTC 60-day vol now below S&P; June ETF inflows: BTC + $4.6 B, ETH + $1.16 B.
Stable-coins & Treasuries: $255 B float is a standing bid for short coupons—anchoring the front-end and funding on-chain yield.
CKC angle: low implied vol lets us buy optionality on our highest-conviction alt positions at a discount, while the liquidity backdrop keeps exit lanes open.
Regulatory Developments
US: GENIUS stable-coin Act cleared the Senate; CLARITY bill moving in the House.
Global: FCA to re-open crypto ETNs, HK stable-coin law live Aug 1.
Mortgage twist: FHFA instructs Fannie & Freddie to model crypto collateral—yet another use-case that normalizes digital assets.
Why CKC cares: clearer rules mean deeper books and tighter spreads on the niche alts we traffic in; our liquidity-tier screens now include U.S.-domiciled stables that will soon be bank-grade.
SEC Actions
Shelved the Custody, DeFi and ESG proposals; lifted the Ripple injunction.
Impact: lower headline-risk discount on mid-cap tokens – CKC is already rotating into names that were previously “radioactive”.
Institutional Moves
Circle IPO ($1.2 B) and fresh corporate BTC treasuries validate the asset class.
June BTC- & ETH-ETF demand proves the allocator bid is structural, not speculative.
Robinhood 24/5 tokenised stocks in the EU, Kraken’s KRAK super-app live, banks hiring crypto desks.
Mastercard now supports four stable-coins; BTC-reward cards from Gemini & Coinbase widen retail on-ramps.
CKC edge: We use ETF flow tape to time basis trades and hedge directional alt exposure—alpha that passive holders simply miss.
Political Influence on Markets
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) adds $3 T to the deficit and a 1 % remittance tax: liquidity boost today, rate-vol tomorrow.
Crypto Week (House votes 7/14-18): watch GENIUS & CLARITY floor action; any surprise amendment could swing stable-coin spreads we arbitrage.
Macro and Global Liquidity
China keeps exporting deflation and dumping Treasuries; Euro CPI back to 2 %.
BoJ on hold, yen cheap; Norway mulls PoW freeze—hash power likely shifts to U.S. grids CKC already monitors
Looking Ahead
The next ninety days are stacked with binary headlines—Solana’s ETF verdict on 15 July, the House’s “Crypto Week” votes right after, a heavy Treasury refunding on 1 August, Jackson Hole in late August, the Ethereum Electra testnet, and a dot-plot refresh at the September FOMC.
Our playbook is already tilted toward each of these switches: volatility inventory on SOL with pre-planned roll paths into ADA and DOGE; stable-coin liquidity sleeves that expand or contract the moment a bill clears the House floor; curve hedges ready for a weak refunding print; optionality that gaps higher if Powell blinks at Jackson Hole; and staking weight adjustments queued for Electra.
In short, the risk units we believe will matter most are already on our radar—waiting for the market to flip them on.
Capacity in these lanes is finite; we're already engaged with the risk units we believe will matter most once each switch is flipped.
Many existing investors are adding capital ahead of July/August regulatory and fiscal milestones, with new investors looking to join as trading lanes heat up.
Stay in Touch
Navigating the ever-changing landscape of digital assets can be a challenge. That's why we’ve created this newsletter to help bring clarity to the complexity. In addition to a monthly summary of the most important crypto news, we layer in insightful commentary from insiders and experts who understand the cryptocurrency market.
If you’re interested in enhancing your understanding of this rapidly evolving space, we kindly suggest you follow us on LinkedIn. Stay one step ahead in the world of digital assets with us. You are also welcome to reach out to us at info@ckc.fund if you would like to know more.
Stay agile,
– The CKC.Fund Team
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